Standard downs are 1st and 10s, 2nd and 7 or fewer yards to go, and third and fourth downs with 4 or fewer yards to go. Mike also does not include kneel-downs to end halves, and considers yards gained on quarterback scrambles to be yards gained on passing plays.Defensive Success Rate uses the same situations as above, but success is determined by preventing the offense from gaining the yardage needed to be considered successful.For both offensive and defensive success rate, Mike has broken the data into an overall metric, running plays only, and passing plays only. )What's the least-efficient full-game performance of the last six seasons?
Syracuse went 0-for-17 versus Penn State in 2008, which was the largest 0-fer on the list by an FBS team. Success is determined by the situation at the start of the play.
Plays are also divided into standard downs and passing downs. Rankings are derived from plays that took place while the game was "close": within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 in the second, 21 in the third, or 16 in the fourth.2. Offensive Success Rate listed as OSR Looking for abbreviations of OSR? On first down, a successful play gains half of the yardage needed to move the chains. Seeing a team like Wisconsin or Navy on the list above would be no surprise -- they're the prototypical grind-it-out, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust teams.
Looking for abbreviations of OSR? (Morgan State went 0-for-20 against Maryland in 2010 while "close," and Delaware State did the same against Michigan in 2009. Congrats to Syracuse for pulling it off twice. It is Offensive Success Rate. Two notes before moving forward:1. Second down is considered a success if 70 percent of the needed yardage is gained. The first is redefining success on 2nd down to be 50 percent of the yards remaining for a first down.
Third and fourth down success is determined by whether or not a new set of downs is earned. Of the top ten teams above, four were from the 2008 Big 12 alone. )In all, teams have racked up a "close" success rate of 80.0% or higher 19 times in six seasons of play-by-play data. (Speaking of invention ... it really is incredible to see just how far ahead of the curve the Big 12 was when it came to the spread. There could almost be a book written about just how far Notre Dame's offense plummeted between 2006 and 2007 -- biggest tumble on record, I believe -- but otherwise, this is just a who's who of pretty bad offensive programs.With this background, here are all 120 FBS teams with their 2010 success rate, schedule-adjusted success rate (SR+) and Leverage Rate (another efficiency measure, the ratio of standard downs to overall plays). A successful puck-possession event would be any successful pass, deke, or shot on net. Plays on first, second and third downs (and fourth, for that matter) all have as close to the same success rate as possible (between 40% and 45%).To see what Success Rate tells us, exactly, let's have a look at it in action. Seventeen of those plays were "successful," 10 of 11 runs and seven of eight passes. First up are the primary concepts behind S&P and S&P+. For FBS teams, it was Northern Illinois' incredible 3-for-48 (6.3%) performance against TCU in 2006.
Success rate helps tell which teams are consistent in certain situations. Success is determined by the situation at the start of the play. That was truly the perfect confluence of innovation and skill position experience. Long plays can skew yardage totals, while success rates measure how consistent teams are in the situations listed.Mike makes a few adjustments to the data.
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